One Country Controls 70% of the World's Cobalt
The global transition to electric vehicles relies on a fragile supply chain running directly through the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The global shift toward green technology is often framed as a transition to decentralized, abundant energy sources like wind and solar. However, the physical infrastructure underpinning this transition—specifically the batteries that power electric vehicles, smartphones, and grid storage units—remains tethered to highly concentrated geographic realities. At the center of this material reality is cobalt, a critical mineral whose global supply chain is dominated by a single nation: the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The DRC's dominance over cobalt is so extreme that the entire EV battery supply chain runs through a single, unstable country.
The Shift in Central African Mining
Historically, the geography of cobalt extraction was somewhat more distributed, even within its primary African corridor. A decade ago, the global market looked more like a two-horse race. The DRC and its neighbor, Zambia, together dominated global production, sharing the mineral-rich geological formations of the Central African Copperbelt. This shared dominance suggested a more balanced regional outlook.
Over the subsequent ten years, however, this balance shifted dramatically. While Zambia's production faded, the DRC's output kept growing, consolidating its position as the undisputed heavyweight of global cobalt extraction. Today, the DRC digs up 70% of the world's cobalt, leaving the rest of the world's producers fighting over scraps. This consolidation has transformed a shared regional market into an absolute monopoly, making the global energy transition highly dependent on the domestic realities of a single nation.
The Demand Engine
This consolidation of supply has occurred alongside an unprecedented surge in global demand. Cobalt is a vital component in the lithium-ion batteries that power modern portable electronics, from smartphones to large-scale grid storage units. Most importantly, it is a cornerstone of the electric vehicle (EV) revolution.
As automakers phase out internal combustion engines, EV batteries are expected to push cobalt demand sharply higher through the 2030s. This projected demand trajectory makes the extreme concentration of supply not just a corporate concern, but a matter of global economic security. Every major automotive market in the world is effectively competing for access to the same concentrated stream of raw materials.
The Refining Bottleneck
The vulnerability of the cobalt supply chain is compounded by a second layer of concentration: refining. Mining the raw ore is only the first step; the cobalt must be chemically processed and refined into battery-grade materials. China recognized this strategic dependency early in the development of the modern battery industry.
Through targeted investments and long-term supply agreements, Chinese firms have secured a dominant position in the midstream supply chain. Today, Chinese firms process roughly 70% of the world's refined cobalt, with the vast majority of their raw material sourced straight from the DRC. This means that even if alternative mining sites are developed elsewhere, the path to a finished battery still largely runs through Chinese processing infrastructure, creating a double-layered dependency for Western manufacturers.
Geopolitical and Operational Risks
Relying on a single country for 70% of a critical resource is inherently risky, but the risk is magnified by the specific domestic conditions of the DRC. The country is widely recognized as one of the least stable nations on earth. It faces ongoing internal conflicts, regulatory volatility, and political uncertainty.
In such an environment, the global supply chain is highly vulnerable to sudden disruptions. A localized conflict near major mining hubs, a sudden export ban imposed by the government, or abrupt policy swings regarding mining concessions could freeze the entire global supply of cobalt overnight. For global automakers and technology giants, this represents a single point of failure with potentially catastrophic economic consequences.
The Scramble for Alternatives
In response to these systemic risks, battery manufacturers and automotive companies are actively seeking ways to diversify. Researchers and engineers are scrambling to reformulate battery cells to use less cobalt, or to eliminate it entirely through alternative chemistries.
However, transitioning chemical formulations at a global scale is a slow and technically challenging process. Despite these efforts, there is currently no clean exit from the DRC. The sheer volume of cobalt required to meet the projected demand through the 2030s means that, for the foreseeable future, the global transition to electric vehicles remains inextricably linked to the stability and output of a single Central African nation.
Frequently asked
- How much of the world's cobalt is mined in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)?
- The DRC dominates global production, digging up 70% of the world's cobalt.
- Why is the global cobalt supply chain considered highly vulnerable?
- The supply chain relies heavily on the DRC, which is one of the least stable countries on earth. Internal conflict, export bans, and sudden policy swings in the DRC have the potential to freeze the global cobalt supply overnight.
- What role does China play in the cobalt supply chain?
- China dominates the refining stage of the supply chain. Chinese firms process roughly 70% of the world's refined cobalt, with the vast majority of the raw material sourced directly from the DRC.
- Has the DRC always dominated cobalt production to this extent?
- No. A decade ago, cobalt production was more balanced, with the DRC and Zambia together dominating the market. Since then, Zambia's production has faded, while the DRC's output has continued to grow.
- Can battery manufacturers easily stop using cobalt from the DRC?
- No. While battery makers are scrambling to reformulate cells to use less cobalt, there is currently no clean exit from the DRC. Demand for cobalt is expected to rise sharply through the 2030s, driven primarily by EV batteries.
